Baker Market Update – November 2026

The Treasury market’s month-long rally came to an abrupt end this week. A strong October payroll report last Friday along with a firmer-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday and an unusually coordinated hawkish message from Federal Reserve officials produced the steepest weekly rise in yields since April 2025. The 10-year note rose roughly 30 bps to 5.16% and the 30-year bond briefly touched 5.50% this morning. The 2-year yield posted its largest two-session rise since March 2023 between Tuesday and Thursday before retreating to ~4.85% this morning. Only a week earlier, the Democratic sweep in the midterm elections and renewed anxiety over the AI trade had drawn investors into Treasuries as a haven, but that positioning was largely unwound this week.